Intelligence Warning: Mines in the Making
Amid the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran now in its second week since February 28, US intelligence has spotted early signs of Tehran readying naval mines in the vital strait, which carries 20% of global oil and has seen traffic drop 97%. The assessment, shared with US allies and briefed to NATO members on March 10, has sent shockwaves through commodity markets and shipping circles.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway separating Iran from Oman and the UAE, is the world's most critical oil chokepoint. At its narrowest, ships pass through a 3.2-kilometre-wide shipping lane. Approximately 17–18 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products transit the strait daily in normal conditions. Since the outbreak of hostilities on February 28, that volume has fallen to an estimated 500,000 barrels per day — a 97% reduction — as tanker operators, insurers, and port operators suspended operations under force-majeure clauses.
Iran's Mine Stockpile
Iran is estimated to possess between 2,000 and 6,000 naval mines of various types, sourced from domestic production and legacy imports from Russia and China. The most dangerous in Iran's inventory is the EM-52 moored mine, capable of being detonated by acoustic, magnetic, or pressure triggers at depths of up to 200 metres. Iran conducted extensive mine-warfare exercises in the Strait of Hormuz as recently as August 2025.
"If Iran deploys even a fraction of this stockpile, it would take weeks to months to sweep the strait safely — even with all available US, NATO, and Gulf mine-countermeasure assets," said retired US Navy Admiral Thomas Fargo in a briefing to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Oil Market Reaction
Oil prices jumped 16% on the intelligence reports before retreating somewhat after President Trump's comments that the conflict was "almost over." Brent crude touched $114.80/barrel intraday on March 10 before settling at $94 as Trump's statements created temporary optimism. WTI crude tracked similar movements. The intraday swing of over $20/barrel was described by oil traders as "unprecedented in modern markets."
Goldman Sachs oil strategist Damien Courvalin said in a flash note: "A sustained Hormuz blockade represents a 15–20 million barrel per day supply disruption — larger than the entire US shale oil industry. There is no scenario in which this does not cause a global recession if it persists beyond 30 days."
Strategic Petroleum Reserves
The IEA convened an emergency board meeting on March 10 at which member nations agreed in principle to coordinate a strategic reserve release. The US holds approximately 360 million barrels in its Strategic Petroleum Reserve; IEA members collectively hold around 1.5 billion barrels. However, officials noted that SPR releases are a "bridge" measure and cannot substitute for a reopened strait over a multi-month horizon.
US Naval Response
President Trump vowed at a press conference that the conflict would reach a "quick resolution" and suggested the US Navy might escort tankers through the strait. Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Marcus Evans said three US Navy mine-countermeasure ships — USS Pioneer, USS Devastator, and USS Avenger — had been repositioned to the Gulf of Oman in a precautionary move. US Marine mine-sweeping helicopter squadrons have also been placed on heightened alert.
Gulf State Reactions
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman convened an emergency session of the Gulf Cooperation Council on March 10. Gulf Arab states — which depend on the Strait for virtually all their oil and gas exports — have called for immediate de-escalation. Qatar, host to the largest US air base in the Middle East, has offered to host ceasefire talks. The UAE's Foreign Minister flew to Washington on an unscheduled visit to brief National Security Adviser Rubio on Gulf vulnerability assessments.
